Inside Lending Newsletter Jan 14, 2013



Geralann Tabet
Production Manager
619 S. Bluff St. Tower 1, Ste 2012
St. George, UT 84770
Direct: 435.215.7342
Fax: 877.371.4777
Cell: 435.619.2452

Jan 14, 2013 – Vol. 11, Issue 2

>> Market Update

QUOTE OF THE WEEK… “It is wise to keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final.”–Roger Babson, American entrepreneur and business theorist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… That’s a good thought as we watch the housing market, once doomed to failure, turn into a more successful enterprise. A national online real estate site surveyed more than 100 professional forecasters — economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. They see growing optimism in the housing market, expecting home prices to rise 3.1% in 2013, after ending 2012 UP more than 4.6%. The site’s chief economist commented, “An organic recovery in the housing market really took hold in the latter half of 2012.”

He added: “Record levels of affordability and an improving overall economic picture… have us well positioned for continued growth, albeit slightly slower, in 2013 and beyond.” Case-Shiller’s chief economist offered, “It is clear the housing recovery is gathering strength… that housing is now contributing to the economy.” Finally, in their latest forecast, Fannie Mae economists expect 2013 existing home sales UP 9.6%, new home sales UP 19.5%, and rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to stay near historical lows.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Success breeds success. Spend time with other successful people. Review last year’s successes, then focus on repeating them. Ditch any negativity and seek out the positive.

>> Review of Last Week

GOOD VIBRATIONS… Good feelings left over from the prior week’s fiscal cliff settlement in Washington kept investors in a positive mood last week, as evidenced byall three major market indexes still heading up and the S&P 500 near a five-year high. It’s no secret that there will be more political fights coming over the spending cuts that didn’t happen and the raising of the debt ceiling, which present spending levels will soon be knocking on. For the moment, Wall Street is content to stay upbeat, hoping that earnings season will get 2013 off to a decent start.

Fourth quarter earnings reports will begin in earnest this week, but they started off quite nicely last Wednesday, when Alcoa disclosed top line revenues that beat estimates. Friday’s news revealed the trade deficit grew nearly 16% in November, but exports were up, just not as much as imports, so no one got too upset. Initial weekly unemployment claims were up by 4,000, still uncomfortably high at 371,000.But continuing claims dipped to 3.11 million, their lowest level since July 2008.

For the week, the Dow ended up 0.4%, at 13488; the S&P 500 was up 0.4%, at 1472; and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%, at 3126.

The good vibes around stocks weren’t quite strong enough to cause a mass exodus from the bond market. That safe haven continued to appeal, as Treasuries saw modest weekly gains. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down just .02, at $106.03. Following the report of 155,000 new jobs in December, national average mortgage rates edged up slightly in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported applications for purchase loans UP 10% for the week.

DID YOU KNOW?… Earnings season is the period when a large percentage of corporations report the previous quarter’s earnings. It often moves markets up or down depending on overall results and future guidance given by individualcompanies.

>> This Week’s Forecast

RETAIL, INFLATION, MANUFACTURING, HOME BUILDING… This week provides us with a nice range of economic data that will paint a pretty clear picture of the economy. No surprises, as slow growth continues but, hey, it IS growth! December Retail Sales are expected up, not a holiday blowout, but a gain nonetheless. Inflation should stay under control, both wholesale PPI prices and, more importantly, the CPI prices we all pay.

Manufacturing is forecast to continue its crawl upward, with the NY Empire Indexand the Philadelphia Fed Index both showing mild expansion in those regions. Thursday we’ll see how home builders are doing, with December Housing Starts and Building Permits predicted to keep moving up.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 14 – Jan 18

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
TuJan 15 08:30 Retail Sales Dec 0.2% 0.3% HIGH
TuJan 15 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.3% 0.0% HIGH
TuJan 15 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec 0.0% –0.8% Moderate
TuJan 15 08:30 Core PPI Dec 0.2% 0.1% Moderate
TuJan 15 08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index Jan 2.0 –8.1 Moderate
TuJan 15 10:00 Business Inventories Nov 0.3% 0.4% Moderate
WJan 16 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Dec 0.0% –0.3% HIGH
WJan 16 08:30 Core CPI Dec 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
WJan 16 09:15 Industrial Production Dec 0.2% 1.1% Moderate
WJan 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Dec 78.5% 78.4% Moderate
WJan 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 1/12 NA 1.314M Moderate
WJan 16 14:00 Fed’s Beige Book Jan NA NA Moderate
ThJan 17 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 1/12 370K 371K Moderate
ThJan 17 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/5 3.100M 3.109M Moderate
ThJan 17 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 889K 861K Moderate
ThJan 17 08:30 Building Permits Dec 905K 899K Moderate
ThJan 17 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jan 5.2 4.6 HIGH
FJan 18 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Jan 75.0 72.9 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed intends to keep the Funds Rate super low for quite a while, but some members want to end the bond buying program by the end of this year, which could send rates up. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 30 0%–0.25%
Mar 20 0%–0.25%
May 1 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jan 30 <1%
Mar 20 <1%
May 1 <1%


This e-mail is an advertisement for Geralann Tabet. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; IL Dept. of Financial and Professional Regulation- lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. CL-13649; WV Div. of Financial Institutions- lender license ML31704 and broker license MB-31703. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 316594

Equal Housing Lender

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *